Temelec Market Report

Screen Shot 2014-01-30 at 12.58.24 PMNorm and Pat Brown, long-time Temelec residents, have an article appearing in tomorrow’s Sonoma Index-Tribune and are kindly providing us with a sneak peak. They can be reached at 696-4371 if you have any questions.

Here’s the text of the article:

Sonoma Adult Community Annual Report, Calendar Year 2013

By Pat and Norm Brown, Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage

We have been tracking the Sonoma Valley Adult (55+) Community real estate market for over 20 years and have been providing reports such as this as a community service.  We have found that a good table is equal to a good photo in getting a lot of information across quickly.

Reviewing 10 years of data, we see that number of units sold in Sonoma County peaked in 2004 with prices continuing to trend higher until the market peak of 2007. The following decline due to the debt and mortgage crisis of 2008 began reversing in 2012 with our having substantial gains in both market value and prices since the market bottom.

2013 was an amazing year in Sonoma’s adult communities. Home sales outpaced all prior years with the greatest number of homes being offered and sold since the market peak. The makeup of homes being offered also changed substantially with a greater amount of the sample being homes of better quality – having more improvements, upgrades, and larger floor plans. Fewer distress property sales also added to the improved values received.  The median values for Creekside Village/Chantarelle homes increased by $88,900. The magnitude of this reversal is partially explained by the 2012 results where values had fallen due to a greater percentage of sales being distress related or homes needing more significant repairs or upgrades.

Median values for Temelec/Country Meadows homes increased by $54,500 in 2013 following significant gains reported in 2012.  Here we would argue that the market had overly discounted Sonoma Valley’s original adult community during the decline, where market pessimism made for difficult times for Seller’s needing to relocate.

Those in our industry who profess the ability to forecast the future have been stating that values are expected to continue to rise over the next few years, albeit at a slower rate. The usual presidential election year bump is expected in 2016 with nobody willing to project their forecasts much further.  The mortgage industry is also expected to remain strong with significant, if lesser government support to keep rates at these historic low levels.

For now, we appear to be sailing on calmer seas.  Market forces are more balanced between buyers and sellers, with sellers still having an edge due to limited inventory of homes offered for sale.  While there are few homes offered for sale currently, we expect the inventory to build in coming months.

Year

 SV Tot

    SV Med

CV/Ch Tot

CV/Ch Med

Tem Tot

Tem Med

2013

568

$520,000

29

$433,900

30

$359,500

2012

596

$419,250

39

$345,000

15

$305,000

2011

480

$400,000

20

$358,650

13

$235,000

2010

443

$429,990

22

$405,000

13

$235,000

2009

427

$400,000

19

$440,000

16

$307,500

2008

378

$505,000

12

$442,750

18

$364,500

2007

360

$694,500

14

$537,500

13

$410,000

2006

446

$650,000

22

$584,750

15

$480,000

2005

360

$650,000

20

$579,500

27

$451,000

2004

376

$565,000

30

$457,500

23

$407,500

The headings of the chart above show data year on the vertical axis

SV Tot = Total number of sold residential transactions within Sonoma Valley for the year stated.

SV Med = Median price reported.

CV/CH Tot = Total number of Creekside Village and Chantarelle Community sold for the year stated.

CV/CH Med = Median price reported.

Tem Tot = Temelec and Country Meadows Homes sold for the year stated.

Tem Med = Median price reported.